From the U.S. Government Accountability Office, www.gao.gov

Transcript for: : Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots 

Description: Audio interview by GAO staff with Gerald Dillingham, Director, Physical Infrastructure

Related GAO Work: GAO-14-232: Aviation Workforce: Current and Future Availability of Airline Pilots
 
Released: February 2014

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[ Narrator: ] Welcome to GAO's Watchdog Report, your source for news and information from the U.S. Government Accountability Office. It's February 2014. Fewer pilots have been employed at commercial airlines since the year 2000 and many stakeholders are concerned about a potential shortage of qualified airline pilots in the near future. A team led by Gerald Dillingham, a director in GAO's Physical Infrastructure team, recently examined airline pilots' current and future availability. GAO's Sarah Kaczmarek sat down with Gerald to talk about what they found.

[ Sarah Kaczmarek: ] Do you see the demand for airline pilots growing in the future?

[ Gerald Dillingham: ] Absolutely; I think that it will certainly depend on a number of factors such as, will we, in fact, have the forecasted capacity that the FAA is talking about and on the other side of the coin, we've had the issue of a pilot shortage, a potential pilot shortage before, but a number of things can interrupt or make that forecast not actually come to be, such as when we had the economic recession. Of course, airline traffic went down. When we had the 9/11 attack, airline traffic went down. When the price of fuel spiked, airline traffic went down so when you have things like mergers and airlines going into bankruptcy, you have a need for fewer pilots but if the forecasts are correct, both in the United States and especially in Asia, there's going to be a significant need for pilots. We have a big retirement bubble coming, which is going to make it part of the issue is whether we're going to have enough. We have fewer people going into airline and aviation so it's working on both sides, so it depends, but if things go as forecast, we will certainly need more pilots than we currently have.

[ Sarah Kaczmarek: ] Well, let me ask you a little bit more then about having enough pilots for these jobs, you know, do you see that we'll have enough pilots or will there be really a shortage?

[ Gerald Dillingham: ] Well, understanding that aviation is sort of a two tier industry, meaning that at the top tier, you have the major airlines, the Uniteds, the Deltas, the Americans; those airlines have very, very good salaries, very good benefits. The second tier are the regional airlines; these are the smaller airlines that are sort of feeder airlines for the majors. These are the airlines that go to small cities and connect up with the major cities through the hubs. I think that if history is any indicator, there will be enough pilots for the major airlines because the major airlines will take pilots from that second tier, the regional airlines, and that's indeed where we're seeing some issues already is that when these pilots move up, having those pilots going to that second tier, where the salaries and the benefits are quite different and much less than the major airlines, could in fact create a bigger problem in terms of having a significant number of pilots.

[ Sarah Kaczmarek: ] What can airlines do then to attract and retain pilots?

[ Gerald Dillingham: ] Well, airlines can do a number of things, one is airlines can -- and some of them are already doing this, make arrangements or work in conjunction with aviation schools so that they provide a pathway for students to come into the aviation industry and I think more important, when you look at the economic literature, the salaries and the benefits for incoming pilots at that second tier, the regional airlines, will have to be adjusted.

[ Sarah Kaczmarek: ] And what about the government? What can the government do?

[ Gerald Dillingham: ] There are a number of things the government can do as well but I think one of the things that we have to keep in mind is that the government cannot compromise safety by changing the requirements for becoming a pilot and keeping the flying public safe, but the government can in fact look at different ways to increase the number of pilots that come through the training process, as well as the time it takes to come through the training process. For example, it probably takes close to six, seven years to go through completely the training process of going to a two- or four-year college and going then to acquire the hours that you need and then going to a regional carrier as a copilot but there are ways in which the pilots are trained in Europe where that time period is significantly reduced to three to four years, and that brings in more pilots or more pilot candidates in a shorter time frame.

[ Sarah Kaczmarek: ] Finally, for all of the traveling public out there, what's the bottom line of this report?

[ Gerald Dillingham: ] I think the bottom line is that we still have and will maintain the safest system on the planet, and that if we have a crisis in terms of having enough pilots, both the industry and the FAA will make the adjustments that are necessary. There might be some slight issues in terms of there might be some small cities that don't have enough traffic that those second tier airlines may have to stop serving them as much as they used to, but overall, the industry will respond to the situation.

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