Learning from the Past and Preparing for the Future

This speech was given by the Comptroller General before Gresham College in London, England on June 16, 2006. The United States has existed as a republic for a little more than 200 years. In the context of both British and world history, I know that's not a long time. Looking back in western history, the Roman Republic endured for about 500 years before it finally fell. The American experiment in representative government has so far lasted less than half that time. God willing, our republic will endure and stand the test of time. Three reasons for the demise of the Roman Republic seem particularly relevant today. The first was a decline in moral values and political comity at home. The second was overconfidence and overextension abroad. The third was fiscal irresponsibility by the central government. These reasons seem all too familiar today. We should learn from them so that history doesn't repeat itself. Unfortunately, in today's world, the lessons of history all too often seem to fall on deaf ears. We live in a world consumed with the here and now. Far too little thought is given to what's come before or what lies ahead. Clearly, this is a risky approach to life and public policy. While we can draw valuable lessons from the past, we also need to stay alert to current, emerging, and future challenges. The United States and many other countries now face a range of trends without geopolitical boundaries. These issues include terrorism, globalized capital markets, natural disasters, energy and environmental concerns, infectious diseases like AIDS and avian flu, and a growing and unhealthy gap between the haves and the have-nots. Despite these shared trends and challenges, too many countries, companies, and individuals today suffer from the dual afflictions of myopia, better known as shortsightedness, and tunnel vision. By considering the long-term implications of current trends and proposed policies, we can capitalize on opportunities and reduce the risks that lie ahead. Partnering among nations on both a bilateral and multilateral basis will be essential. Candidly, many nations, including the United States, are facing rough seas ahead. We're going to need to start rowing together or else we risk sinking separately. Today, America now faces not one but four significant deficits. These four deficits have serious implications for America's continuing role in the world and its standard of living at home. The first deficit is our federal budget deficit, which last year totaled $318 billion on a cash basis and $760 billion on an accrual basis. But the real problem is our government's unfunded commitments for social insurance programs. I'm talking here about future Social Security and Medicare benefits. The second deficit is our savings deficit. Clearly, many Americans are following the bad example set by their government. These individuals are living beyond their means and are deeply in debt. This brings me to America's third deficit, our overall balance-of-payments deficit. The United States simply consumes more than it produces. In 2005, the U.S. trade deficit hit a record high of $726 billion, twice what it was just four years earlier. Finally, there's America's fourth deficit, and it may be the most serious and sobering of all. Our leadership deficit. Too few elected officials have been willing to heed the past, speak the truth about the problems ahead, and make hard choices to put our fiscal house in order.